By-election in Ontario doesn't give much of a hint on the federal election scheduled for October 2015.

By Ray Rivers

November 18, 2014

BURLINGTON, ON.

He is consistently below Trudeau and Mulcair in national opinion polls and his party is currently lagging that of Trudeau by double digits, yet the voters in the two federal by-elections yesterday chose Harper. Of course the Alberta riding of Yellowhead was never in doubt, and the new Tory there won by a resounding 60% of the vote. But that is Alberta, where the point of having an election is, arguably, a waste of money. Why not just have the Conservative Party appoint the MPs?

Whitby-Oshawa was a closer race between the Libs and Cons. Nevertheless, the popular former Whitby mayor, Pat Perkins, who only recently jumped in for the Conservatives, won the support of a clear majority of the voters, receiving almost 50 per cent of the votes cast. The Liberal, Celina Caesar-Chavannes, came in second with a respectable 40% of the vote in this one-time Liberal riding. The NDP, which had replaced the Liberals as the second choice of voters in the last general election fell back to their more traditional spot.

Of course this is the constituency of former finance minister Flaherty, whom Canadians generally respected, once he came to federal politics. And it didn’t hurt that Flaherty’s widow, Christine Elliott, is the sitting provincial MPP there, and also a front runner in the contest to lead the provincial Tories. So the newly-cast conservative candidate had a lot of things going for her.

Oh, and did I mention that the PM announced his so-called ‘family income splitting’ promise mid-campaign – a $2 billion tax giveaway for the wealthiest tax payers, a program Flaherty had justifiably disparaged? But the ‘tax-cut’ spin still works. And it didn’t hurt when tough guy Harper ordered tough guy Putin to “get out of Ukraine” last week – newsworthy, but an empty threat given what little we had and would do for that embattled nation.

By-elections generally tend to have lower turnout and these two contests were no strangers to that phenomena. Only a third of Whitby-Oshawans could be bothered to vote and over 80% of eligible Yellowhead voters must have slept-in all day. I guess they knew the result would be a foregone conclusion in a province where some voters act as if Canada’s borders start at the Rockies and end somewhere in the prairies. And Mr. Harper is local, despite his accidental birth in Ontario.

Americans just finished voting in their mid-term congressional elections and the President, whose party got slaughtered, grumped that only a third of eligible voters showed up – implying he might have won had turnout been higher. He may be right, but the point is why don’t we have higher voting numbers? Australia has had compulsory voting for eons, with real penalties for those too lazy to get their butts into the ballot both. As a result, over 90 percent of the electorate consistently make the effort to vote, that number hitting 95% in some years.

Were we to adopt a similar law, Albertans would still probably continue to vote Tory, or for the Attila the Hun party if they could – and that is their choice, of course. But at least more people would be engaged in the process of holding our politicians to account. And that should mean better governance.

Of course if you were an NDP supporter in either of these by-elections you might ask yourself why bother? And that is where preferential balloting for multi-party politics makes a lot of sense. Voters select their first choice as they do today in our first-past-the-post system. But if no candidate wins 50% of all the votes cast, second (and third) choices are counted until a winner is announced. Governing parties would always be elected by at least a simple majority of the people, instead of the thirty-plus percentages we’ve seen over the last few elections. However, a preferential ballot wouldn’t have changed the result of these by-elections.

And maybe we need to make voting easier. Why not hold elections on a weekend when most people have real spare time? And what about on-line voting for a nation that has proven how securely we can even do banking that way? What about better election coverage? I mean how many people were even aware that these by-elections were taking place? And what about more time teaching political choice and process at schools, so our youth can develop an interest in how their governments can work for them?

By-elections are usually a good time for the public to register its displeasure with the government in power. If that is true we should take it that the voters are pretty happy with the government we have. But that flies in the face of the national polls – so what is really going on?

Are we a nation of people wanting change, but too complacent to be bothered to do anything about it? Or maybe we truly have become the ‘small c’ conservative society that Stephen Harper had set out to create – too conservative to try change?
By-Elections    Yellowhead   Whitby-Oshawa  
Polling   More Polling 

Analysis   Election Canada Results 

Australian Voting    Harper’s Income Splitting 

Ray Rivers writes weekly on both federal and provincial politics, applying his more than 25 years as a federal bureaucrat to his thinking. Rivers was a candidate for provincial office in Burlington where he ran against Cam Jackson in 1995, the year Mike Harris and the Common Sense Revolution swept the province.