The evidence always tells the story; it can be enhanced by anecdotal information.

News 100 redBy Joe Gaetan

May 17th, 2020

BURLINGTON, ON

 

Joe Gaetan is a regular Gazette reader who more often than not gets it right. He can be, has been, a trenchant critic. He is Italian.

“First, I would like to say that this will be the last issue of my reporting on the Covid19 pandemic. Secondly, I recently read an article entitled, “Seniors with Covid19 show unusual symptoms Doctors Say”. The premise of the article is that some seniors experience unusual symptoms, please read it and share as you see fit, https://khn.org/news/seniors-with-covid-19-show-unusual-symptoms-doctors-say/

“ When I first started doing this I did so because I wanted to see how Canada was doing compared to Italy. As time marched on I became interested in what was occurring in South Korea (for obvious reasons) and the USA (because they are our neighbor). And now it is time to move on and I am getting sick and tired of hearing phrases such as “during these difficult times” blah blah.

“This chart shows the average number of new cases per day for the months of March, and April and for May to the 15th. The U.S.A. is currently running at an average of 25,951 new cases per day while S Korea is seeing about 17 new cases per day. Canada is now seeing 1,419 new cases per day on average while Italy is at 1,228. We have a way to go.

Canada - Italy numbers 1

Cases per day, by month, comparing Canada and Italy.

“This series of charts and my favorite are the % Daily Change in Cases that tell us if we are winning or losing the battle against Covid19. Canada is within striking distance, but we need to be below 1%.

Canada daily changes 2

Canada’s curve – needs to be brought down to less than 1%

“S Korea is the benchmark for this. As you can see S.K was running at a rate of 1.85% back in March. The rest is history and their average % daily change rate for May is .16% down from an average of.32% for April. Canada per the above chart is at an average daily % change rate of 1.65%, so I suspect we may be 45 to 50 days away from where SK is today % wise but with way more cases.

 

Penny Hersh, a strong face mask advocate, said in a comment: “My concern has been that once things started opening up that residents would not do what they should to protect themselves and others.

“Yesterday, there was a huge lineup for ice cream at La Creme de la Creme on John Street. The lineup outside of the shop snaked all around the street and around the corner. No physical distancing was taking place and no one was wearing a facial mask.

“Friday evening, about 5 or 6 cars of residents( about 15 people) came together in the parking lot across from Emma’s and stood in the parking lot some drinking and all socializing once again no physical distancing or masks.”

The message is getting out to family’s – it doesn’t seem to be getting out to the younger people who seem to think they are immune to the virus.  The data does say that this cohort is infected less than other cohorts – but they are being infected.  No one has come up with a way to get this message across.

Youth on Beachway - balls

They are sometimes oblivious to the obvious.

South Korea daily changes

South Korea’s curve – this is where we need to get to.

Joseph GaetanJoseph A. Gaetan has a BGS degree in applied studies, earned through studies at The University of Waterloo and Athabasca University. He also earned a Province of Ontario Engineering Technology Certificate through Fanshawe College, and for 8 years worked at earning a trade becoming a Journeyman Machinist. He also studied French at the Centre Linguistique du Collège de Jonquière and Italian at Mohawk College. In addition, he has taken online courses through the EDx platform taking courses from Harvard, The University of Queensland, Wellesley and Delft Wageningen, he is currently working at learning 6 languages through Duolingo. His work career includes being a Machinist, a CNC programmer, a business owner, a consultant and the Director of Organizational Development for a Fortune 100 company. All of this thanks to life-long learning.

Return to the Front page
Print Friendly, PDF & Email

6 comments to The evidence always tells the story; it can be enhanced by anecdotal information.

  • Lynn Crosby

    Are my eyes going funny or is Joe sideways and blurry? Hope you’re well Joe!

  • Joe Gaetan

    Pepper thanks for the honourific.No disrespect taken. After all you are the Putz master.

  • Joe Gaetan

    For the record, I was born in Canada and am a proud Canadian of paternal and maternal Italian heritage. My mom was actually born right here in Halton (Nassagaweya) but lived in Italy with her parents until she returned to Canada in 1939.

    Editor’s note: I should have said Joe Gaetan is of Italian heritage – there was certainly no disrespect intended to me Italian is the heritage – where you were born just happened to be where your mother was on a particular day. Joe is an Italian, born in Canada. He is also a Putz!

  • Earl Chapman

    Good job, Joe. Well presented.

  • Gary Scobie

    Clear research and wise conclusions, Joe. Humanity has shown that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

    We have previous pandemic histories to guide us, but today in this world of instant communication we also have very recent pandemic histories to help us even more.

    As you point out, some countries have led the way and provided excellent guidance. Other countries, the followers, have made choices to either follow good guidance or not, as have their citizens. Those who do not will be doomed to repeat the worst case scenarios. No one can say they weren’t warned.

Leave a Reply